OPINION: Predicting the 98th Academy Awards

The 98th Academy Awards are on Sunday, pretty late for this time of year, but here’s the kicker: I already know who will win every award.

Yes, this year has been a great one for movies, but the tippy top of awards season will be completely expected.

Don’t believe me? I had a stellar pick rate last year, and I’ll give my crystal ball fortune to you now so you won’t have to spend four hours on Sunday staring at celebrities.

Come Sunday, the show will likely be run over by Warner Bros. movies. “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” will be the frontrunners for many awards this year.

Before we get there, a few of the fringe awards. Best Documentary and Best Documentary Short I’ll give the lean to “The Perfect Neighbor” and “All the Empty Rooms,” owing to Netflix as their distributor, who do a surprising amount of campaigning for their docs.

The two other short awards are more difficult to pin. Animated shorts are tricky with the absence of any Disney brand, but I’ll give it to “Butterfly.” The live action short will likely go to “Two People Exchanging Saliva,” although Academy voters might be turned away from that title and premise.

Best International Film is easy to narrow down to Best Picture nominees “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent,” but I think the Academy will enjoy “Sentimental Value” and its connection to the film industry more.

Best Animated Feature will go to, as surprising as it is to say, “KPop Demon Hunters,” as will Best Original Song with “Golden.” If there was only one radical culture shift from the movies over last year, it’s coming from “KPop.”

Some tech awards now. Best Visual Effects will go to the bombastic affair of “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” a franchise the Academy has never shied away from for recognizing tech achievement. Next, Best Sound to “F1,” as is the tradition with racing movies (I look to 2019 and “Ford v Ferrari”).

“Sinners,” with 16 nominations will have quite a lot to win, but none more sure than Best Score. To anyone who has seen the movie, the score rips with so much power and is the only movie nominated where the score is synergetic with the material.

“Frankenstein” will likely win Best Production Design, Best Costume Design and Best Makeup and Hairstyling. Gothic vibes and a lot of attention to period clothing with a hint of the mystique is a concoction destined for awards recognition.

Best Film Editing is tricky. Instinct says “F1,” but the blockbuster nature of a movie like “One Battle After Another” might challenge it. I lean on the latter here, but only because I found every scene not involving a car in “F1″ to be edited like my neck had whiplash.

The brand new Best Casting award will likely go to “Sinners,” and I fear the Academy will misinterpret the award for years to come as a best ensemble award. Either way, the “Sinners” cast is far more cohesive than any other film this year.

Best Cinematography is another tricky problem. There wasn’t a film this year in the nominees that really relied on visual language, so in the case of no contest, I point toward “Sinners.”

Screenplays will go to the frontrunners. Best Original Screenplay to “Sinners” and Best Adapted Screenplay to “One Battle After Another.”

Now, the acting categories. Probably the toughest to predict, I’ll start with the easiest: Jessie Buckley in “Hamnet” for Best Actress.

The acting categories tend to favor legacy performers if they hadn’t won in a while, but I go against this grain by predicting Timothée Chalamet for “Marty Supreme” winning Best Actor.

That legacy performer trend might give Amy Madigan the win for “Weapons,” but I want to give my prediction to Wunmi Mosaku’s performance in “Sinners.”

What’s tricky here is analyzing how the Academy handles diversity, which could, horrifically, split the vote between Mosaku and Teyana Taylor’s performance in “One Battle After Another.” In addition, I find Madigan’s presence this awards season to be so confusing, with only legacy riding on this campaign. We’ll see how this shapes up Sunday.

Best Supporting Actor is a coin flip between Sean Penn in “One Battle After Another” and Stellan Skarsgård for “Sentimental Value,” and I go with the latter here. As much as I love Penn’s performance, Skarsgård’s role holds a sympathetic depth which might get the edge in the race.

Now, the final two. Paul Thomas Anderson has never won an Academy Award, which is unreal considering his filmography of “Boogie Nights,” “Magnolia,” “There Will Be Blood,” “The Master” and “Phantom Thread.” Hopefully, this will be his year, and it’s likely Best Director will go his way after his work in “One Battle After Another.”

Last year, I worried if predicting last year’s Best Picture award going to my second favorite movie of the year in “Anora” would be a potential bias. I have no qualms with my prediction in “One Battle After Another,” my favorite film from last year, winning the top prize.

And there you have it. Hope that’ll save you a few hours.