OPINION: The studio theory of predicting nominees

Tomorrow, this year’s Oscar nominations will be announced. While my thoughts on which movies will be named for Best Picture (the only category I care about predicting at this stage) have mostly remained the same, I want to gloat a little about how right I am.

First, my predicted trifecta of awards favorites in “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners” and “Hamnet,” has become more prominent than ever after the Golden Globes. What each of them represent will likely pull Academy voters in their own respective niches. The three are by far the easiest lock-ins of the year.

Love for prestige dramas and period pieces seen with “Hamnet” is by far the closest we’ve seen this year to an Oscar box-ticker, but as I wrote in my column about the movie, it’s clear there’s a lot more than meets the eye. Devastatingly powerful grief and two wonderful performances revolving around the magic of theater; of course movie-lovers are adoring it.

I’ll most likely have to write about “One Battle After Another” again when it wins Best Picture (I’ve never been more confident this far away from the ceremony), but I’ll just say that there’s no other movie that feels firmly planted in our current anxieties and still finds the humanity inside it. It’s the type of movie worth the massive blockbuster budget which we ever-so rarely see.

In comparison to last year’s Best Picture winner “Anora,” the contemporary power in “One Battle After Another” is fully emblematic of our times. It’s by far the best movie of last year and you’ll see me write about it at least two more times.

“Sinners” representing the other side of blockbusters, possibly the best theatrical experience of the year, will round out the trio. Plenty of commentary on Black history and assimilation through a blues and horror lens which is truly inspired. Ryan Coogler, after spending so long in the franchise blockbuster world, is going to be a filmmaker to watch from now on.

What about the other seven nominations? I’m going to break it down in a strange way — by studio.

As I’ve noticed ever since the Academy swapped to a hardline 10 Best Picture nominations, studios seem to only dedicate consideration campaigns to one and, rarely, two movies. This makes nominations like last year’s surprise of “I’m Still Here” more understandable (Sony Pictures Classics rallied behind the movie impressively).

If only one movie had to be chosen per studio, this is what I call “studio theory.”

For example, A24 has had a relatively quiet year for prestige films, which makes “Marty Supreme,” one of their best and most financially-successful films in recent memory, a surefire campaign option. It’s my fourth lock.

Focus Features, the distributor behind “Hamnet,” has stood behind “Bugonia” as well this year, but I have a feeling “Bugonia” might get snubbed. It somewhat depends on whether Universal, their parent company, is going to be backing “Wicked: For Good” as well.

Netflix has made it clear they’re going to be backing “Frankenstein,” so that’s another lock, but I believe they can back a second as shown in years like 2019. The question is, which one? It seems like a draw between “Train Dreams” and “Jay Kelly,” and I’m more likely to lean on “Train Dreams” after “Jay Kelly” had a somewhat quiet release.

Here’s the big one. Neon has four major options. I talked a lot about it when discussing foreign film representation at the Golden Globes, but Neon has “Sentimental Value,” “It Was Just an Accident,” “The Secret Agent” and “No Other Choice” in their barrel.

Realistically, I think only two are going to be chosen, and as much as I love “No Other Choice” and consider “It Was Just an Accident” as a vital movie for political movements, “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent” get my locks based on how receptive U.S. audiences have been to them.

Sony Pictures Classics, always a wild card, could push “Nuremburg” or even “Blue Moon,” but neither are swirling in quite the same way as everyone else. I’m surprising myself, but I really think “Blue Moon” could be a shock upset.

20th Century Studios could certainly push “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” but I think audiences might be a little too familiar with the franchise for it to receive further praise. It’s only been three years since “The Way of Water,” but these types of grand projects could pull voters.

Searchlight, their arthouse outlet, seems split on three options in “Is This Thing On?” “The Testament of Ann Lee” and “Rental Family,” but none of them being nominated for the feature awards at the Golden Globes feels like a sign of something.

So, for the final prediction before the nominations are announced, I’m locking in “Hamnet,” “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners,” “Marty Supreme,” “Frankenstein,” “Sentimental Value,” “The Secret Agent,” “Blue Moon,” “Train Dreams” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” as this year’s Best Picture nominees.

Looking at this list, I share 5/10 of my current top 10 with these picks. There are a few I haven’t seen (“Sentimental Value,” “The Secret Agent” and “Blue Moon”) but I’m overall confident they’ll be nominated.

I’m at least confident in 8/10, with my only reservations on “Blue Moon” and “Avatar.” (For posterity, “Bugonia” or “It Was Just an Accident” are interchangeable with those two, but I’m leaning toward my studio theory.)

I’ll hopefully have my top 10 of 2025 finished sometime in March. I shot too early last year with my top 10 of 2024, so I’m giving myself a bit more time to catch up on some lesser-known movies.