OPINION: Waiting for the plates to fall

It’s that time of the year again. Time for way-too-early predictions about the Academy Awards Best Picture nominees by selecting from a list of movies I haven’t seen.

This year is fascinating, if mostly because the front runners have already been decided. Most likely, the trio of “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners” and “Hamnet” are going to be the films getting all the attention.

It’s quite an interesting group by looking like a conglomerate of all the interests of film audiences. Take for instance “Hamnet.” Every year, it’s likely to see one or two period piece dramas in the mix. Not just a time from the 1900s, but beyond. I like to think of “Little Women” in 2019, and “Hamnet” looks to replicate that same look.

“Hamnet,” which will take viewers back in time to when William Shakespeare looked like a young man, follows the legendary playwright and his wife Agnes as they process their grief after their son died.

Directed by Chloe Zhao, who directed the brilliant “Nomadland” which matched the heart of isolation felt during the 2020 pandemic (the same year it won Best Picture), I have a feeling this one will be quite notable.

The period piece aspect extends to “Sinners,” most likely to be the most genre-defined movie of the slate. The 1920s vampire horror film has easily been a memorably electric audience-pleaser over this year despite its March release.

It’s most likely to easily sweep the sound and technical awards, as long as “Wicked: For Good” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” don’t spoil the party first. As a celebration of blues and Black history, “Sinners” makes tremendous use of talented performances to create possibly the most transcendent scene of the year.

And finally, a radical movie which is my favorite for the year, “One Battle After Another” rounds out that front-running trio. Probably the hardest film to fit into the typical bubble, I believe the thriller, which analyzes the climate of today’s America while also acknowledging feelings of personal failure, is going to stick with many Academy voters.

Where does that leave the rest of the pack? Frankly, it’s pretty messy.

Foreign films “Sentimental Value” and “It Was Just an Accident” have been attention-getting, but standing up to the historical template for nominees, I think only one of them is going to be chosen. I’d lean toward “Sentimental Value,” if only because Americans are likely to recognize Stellan Skarsgard and Elle Fanning, even if they are speaking Norwegian.

There’s also the Brazillian film “The Secret Agent,” which isn’t unprecedented after “I’m Still Here” last year, but a 158-minute runtime probably won’t excite voters. I’d love to see Korean film “No Other Choice,” but we’re already stretching global cinema for a traditionally American-focused show.

Plenty of other genre films have a shot; “Frankenstein,” “Wicked: For Good, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” and maybe even “F1″ can challenge for Best Picture based off of precedent. Yorgos Lanthimos, Noah Baumbach and Josh Safdie have returned to prestigious filmmaking this year with “Bugonia,” “Jay Kelly” and “Marty Supreme.”

What fascinates me is the general lack of optimism this year, however. I wouldn’t say it’s a particularly weak year, but looking through the lists of other predictors, I’ve noted how the top three I mentioned before are so solid compared to the rest of the field.

It’s almost like those three are in such a different league compared to the rest, there’s no chance and no real reason to celebrate the rest of the field.

That means the independents who would otherwise get their chance are facing attention problems. Movies like “Train Dreams” or “The Testament of Ann Lee” are most likely going to be forgotten or become a surprise if they’re nominated.

There’s plenty of “Oscar bait” films (which is an absurd phrase) like “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” or “Rental Family,” but the indies just aren’t receiving attention or are still in release limbo. Movies like “Sorry, Baby,” “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” or “Is This Thing On?” are struggling for the attention they deserve.

There’s still a lot of time left as well. “Wake Up Dead Man,” whenever that’s released by Netflix, I could see as having a small surge before the nominations are announced. I do doubt “A House of Dynamite” and “Weapons” for their nominations as being alienating to Academy voters (the average age is in the 60s, remember).

If I had to pick a 10 now, and it’s a tough one to pick at this moment, I’d go with the three of “One Battle After Another,” “Sinners” and “Hamnet,” followed by “Sentimental Value,” “Frankenstein,” “Wicked: For Good,” “Bugonia,” “Train Dreams,” “No Other Choice” and “Jay Kelly.”

I’m grumpy enough to know this list is likely wrong and is dependent on my own optimism for the movies I’m favorable for, but this is my list for now. Either way, I’d be incredibly happy if more foreign films became a regular fixture for Best Picture.

That’s all my thoughts for now. The net of films at this point is too large to make any definites. Pruning to come.